In my column last month, I made a set of assessments and predictions regarding the Republican contest for the presidency. This month, as promised, I will look ahead on the other side.

The Democratic primary campaign has fewer variables since there currently are only three candidates still in the race, and only two of them are viable. Probably through no real fault of his own, former Maryland Gov. Martin O’Malley has yet to attract more than single-digit support in the polls. The only suspense remaining in his case is whether he will drop out before or just after the New Hampshire primary.

Back in 2008, the Democratic contest had remarkably similar dynamics to what we see today. In early January of that year, the frontrunner was Hillary Clinton, and the two other viable contenders were John Edwards and a still little known but fast rising star Barack Obama. Edwards dropped out sooner than expected (probably because of an emerging personal scandal) not long after Obama had won in Iowa and Clinton had rallied in New Hampshire. From there it was a two-horse race.

That’s how this one is shaping up as well. Hillary has been the frontrunner and expected nominee all along — by pundits, media and most Democrats. Her anticipated coronation probably was part of what motivated Democratic National Committee Chair Debbie Wasserman Schultz to limit the number of debates and to schedule them on the same nights and weekends as big football games, when the television audience was bound to be diminished. Schultz’s cozy relationship with Clinton might also account for the DNC’s overreaction to a brief security breach of Clinton campaign data back in December by one of Sanders’ staff members, after which Schultz deprived Sanders of his own data until Bernie filed suit to have access to his information restored.

For about a year now, Sanders’ support has been steadily building while Clinton’s has been eroding. Hillary and her advisers essentially conceded this in last week’s debate when she stepped up her attacks on Sanders and tried to present herself as the Democrat most closely aligned with and supportive of President Obama. Sanders responded by pointing out the real differences that he has with Clinton on many issues, including Wall Street reform and health care. He also cast Hillary’s portrayal of his relationship with the president as disingenuous as he reaffirmed his own support for Obama and his policies.

Our national media have been so obsessed with Donald Trump for the past six months that they have ignored the fact that Bernie Sanders has consistently drawn the biggest rallies and has the broadest base of contributors of any campaign of either party. His slogan, “Feel the Bern,” is a clever expression of the enthusiasm of his admirers.

Since caucus states rely on people coming out on a cold winter night to their neighborhood school or courthouse, they measure voter temperature more than volume. For that reason, I expect Bernie to win handily in Iowa.

He also has the advantage in New Hampshire, one of his neighboring states. And although Vermont is a blue state while New Hampshire is purple, Sanders is currently polling ahead of Clinton there. So barring some major gaffe or political dust-up in the next two weeks, I predict that Bernie will win there as well.

I expect the Democratic contest to be a long slog. Hillary demonstrated in 2008 that she is a tough, resilient candidate. She also is an excellent debater, although I think that Sanders holds his own against her there. In caucus states, Sanders will have the advantage.

Once more and more Democrats actually believe that Bernie can win, I think they will rally to his campaign. It will not be easy, but I predict that Sanders will win the Democratic nomination.

John McColgan writes from his home in Joseph.