July will be considerably drier than usual, even for a dry month, and hotter across most of Oregon.

The Oregon Department of Agriculture long-term weather forecast for July offers little reassurance for a calm fire season ahead. Based on weather patterns from the similar years of 1959, 1970 and 2005, meteorologist Pete Parsons predicts a warmer July, with drier-then-normal conditions. “Extreme heat is not favored, but the chance of dry lightning is elevated,” Parson’s forecast says.

The state map indicated that northeast Oregon will receive about 70 percent of normal precipitation in July. However, as Parsons noted, July is the driest month, and it doesn’t take the loss of much precipitation to produce an apparent 70 change. However, the central part of Oregon, including Harney Lake, Wheeler, Crook, Jefferson and Deschutes counties are predicted to have only about 1/3 of normal precipitation. Portions of Klamath and Lake Counties may see less than a quarter of normal precipitation. That, combined with possible dry lightning bodes ill for the start of serious fire season.