As a political junkie and a sports fan, I enjoy trying to handicap the quadrennial presidential horse race that officially takes off in Iowa and New Hampshire every leap year. In preparation for making my prognostications, this lifelong Democrat even stoically watched last week’s Republican debates, hosted by CNN. The debates focused on national security and terrorism, which turned out to be more interesting, though only slightly less annoying, than I had expected.

If we Americans could somehow convince the followers of ISIS to abandon their religious restrictions for an evening and engage in a drinking game in which they each took a shot of whiskey every time a Republican candidate insulted our president, we could simply cart them off stone drunk in paddy wagons after the debates, and that would be the end of our troubles, right? Not a realistic proposal, you say? Since when has workability been a requirement in these discussions, I reply. But I digress.

Although I didn’t see all of the “undercard” debate, which featured the four candidates — Pataki, Graham, Santorum and Huckabee — who languish furthest back in the polls, I saw enough of that event to reassure me that these gentlemen will soon be able to resume their respective roles in retirement, in the Senate or as professional political commentators. Personally, I will miss hearing from Sen. Lindsey Graham most because he actually added some badly needed words of rebuke against the current frontrunner, who shall remain nameless in this column for as long as I can manage.

Turning to the nine Republicans who qualified for the “main event” (and wrestling or boxing terminology seems appropriate, especially considering that CNN deliberately arranged the format as a set of face-offs between perceived rivals), we could loosely organize them into three groups of three candidates: the governors, the senators and the outsiders. It is a curious feature of this year’s political preseason that, in general, the governors have been underperforming in the polls, the senators have been stuck in the middle of the pack and the outsiders have been leading.

Keeping to these three categories, I think it is safe to say that the candidate who lags furthest back in each will be the first to fall by the wayside. So shortly after the New Hampshire primary, I anticipate that Ohio Gov. John Kasich (who also has represented a more moderate but apparently underappreciated voice within his party), Sen. Rand Paul (who represents a strain of fiscal conservatism and libertarianism that Republican voters ought to embrace more than they do) and Carly Fiorina (who earned a promotion from previous undercard status by her surprisingly strong debate performances) will all be spending more time with their families again.

Of the remaining governors, Chris Christie chose during the debate to highlight his experience as a federal prosecutor and to contrast his role as governor with the more esoteric matters that occupy U.S. Senators, while Jeb Bush was set up by CNN to engage in direct confrontations with the current frontrunner. The only aspect of this political preseason that I have found as stunning as the enduring status of that frontrunner is the lackluster response of Republican voters thus far to Jeb Bush. Perhaps Bush’s head-on attacks will have some impact on that dynamic before voters in Iowa and New Hampshire weigh in. But I’m betting against that, so I think that Jeb will step aside, too, perhaps after South Carolina, leaving Christie as the last governor standing, but probably not for much longer either.

Turning to Sens. Rubio and Cruz, it is becoming increasingly clear, especially since CNN chose to let the two clash repeatedly, that each of these men is in the race for the long haul. They will continue to challenge each other rather than go after the outsiders for the time being because each probably has confidence that the Republican establishment really doesn’t want one of the outsiders to win after all. My money is on Rubio to prevail in that duel, because Cruz is not well liked by many of his colleagues of either party, and because it’s likely he will gradually lose his appeal among voters, too. Besides, will all those Republican birthers ultimately be able to ignore the fact that Ted Cruz was actually born in Canada?

This leaves our two remaining outsiders, who have already received far more attention from the media than either of them probably deserves based on their resumes for this job as leader of the free world. Dr. Ben Carson has a likable persona, but he is already fading in the polls, and he will not do well except in states with large contingents of evangelical voters. That leaves only Donald Trump (I held out for as long as I could), who has defied all conventional wisdom up to this point. I still am betting that he won’t get the nomination, so my prediction is Rubio. But Trump might prove me wrong, and God help us all if he does.

I will make my forecast for the Democratic race in next month’s column. It might not be what you would expect.

John McColgan writes from his home in Joseph.