Will there be a drought declaration in Wallowa County during this year? A relatively low snow pack and the recent history of droughts in the ounty, make it a distinct possibility.

An El Nino weather pattern in Oregon has translated into somewhat warmer than normal temperatures and less than normal precipitation. The SNOTEL report for the Grande Ronde/Powder/ Burnt/Imnaha basin, which includes the Wallowa Mountains, was at 70 percent of average by Monday, March 22. Wallowa County’s Mt. Howard reporting site at the highest elevation (7,910 ft) is 87 percent, while Aneroid (7,400 ft.) is only 60 percent.

“I wouldn’t be surprised to see conditions stay the same as they are and get dryer and dryer through the summer,” said John Lea, Oregon snow survey supervisor for the U.S. Natural Resources Conservation Service in Portland.

Lea said the prediction is that stream flows this summer will be 70 to 75 percent of normal in this basin. “That’s not great, but not as bad as other locations in the state,” he said, pointing to the Willamette Basin, which was only 42 percent early this week, and said that the stream flow this summer will probably be in the 40 to 50 percent range.

Wallowa County agriculture and fisheries depend heavily on the mountain snow pack during the summer months for irrigation, high range conditions, fisheries and stream flows.

In Oregon an official declaration of is made county by county, first by the county government and then, most of the time, by the governor at the recommendation of the state Drought Council. Earlier this month Gov. Ted Kulongoski issued a drought declaration in one region of Oregon – the Klamath River basin..

A drought declaration opens the door for emergency disaster aid, including low-interest loans, to farmers in affected and surrounding counties.

Wallowa County dodged the drought bullet for the last two years – the county’s last drought declaration was in 2007 – but in the years prior to that, the declaration came every other year and corresponded to years of less-than-average mountain snow pack.

Drought was declared in 2001, when the basin-wide snow pack was 57 percent of average on March 22; 2003, at 70 percent; 2005, at 32 percent; and 2007, at 62 percent. Last year the snow pack was at a borderline 87 percent on March 22, but a colder and wetter winter meant snow continued to fall during the spring, and by May 15 the pack had built up to 141 percent. Most years, the mountain snow pack starts to shrink after April 1.

Some years a cold, wet spring like last year’s rescue the summer water season, and in 2005 – when the County Board of Commissioners declared a drought the first week of May – it rained almost every day during May, mitigating what could have been truly disastrous drought conditions. From 4 to 9 inches, depending on the location, fell during the month in the county, starting the day after the commissioners declared a drought.

Lea said that while it’s still possible to be bailed out by that type of rainfall or more snow accumulation in the months ahead, “probably not.”

According to the on-line U.S. Drought Monitor map, a consensus of agencies rated most of Oregon as “abnormally dry,” with drought already identified in the southernmost part of the state.

The U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook map of the National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center identifies most of Oregon, including Wallowa County, as an area where “drought development is likely” in the period from March 18, when the map was posted on-line, to June 1. See the map at (www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov).

Lea said that based on history and forecasts, “I wouldn’t be surprised to see drought declarations for a number of other counties this year,” and he included Wallowa County in that statement.