AAA predicts a slight decrease in Memorial Day holiday travel
Published 5:00 pm Wednesday, May 21, 2008
AAA projects the number of Americans traveling during the Memorial Day holiday will drop this year compared to 2007. AAA estimates that 37.87 million Americans will travel 50 miles or more from home this holiday, a decrease of nearly 360,000 travelers (0.9 percent) from last year’s total of 38.23 million.
Nearly 31.7 million Americans (83 percent of all holiday travelers) are expected to travel by automobile, a one percent decrease from the approximately 32 million people who drove a year ago.
Almost 4.35 million (11 percent of holiday travelers) plan to fly this holiday weekend; a decrease of 0.5 percent from the 4.37 million who took to the skies last year. About 1.8 million intend to travel by train, bus or other mode of transportation.
“Many Americans are feeling the financial pinch from record high gas prices and a slowing economy,” says Marie Dodds, Public Affairs Director for AAA Oregon/Idaho. “But despite the small decrease, millions of people are still traveling this weekend. More than 12 percent of the U.S. population will be celebrating the Memorial Day weekend away from home.”
Those driving to their Memorial Day destinations will encounter record-high gas prices. As of Tuesday, May 20, the national average for regular unleaded was $3.80 per gallon, and the Oregon average is $3.82. A year ago, the national average was $3.10, while Oregon’s average was $3.41.
Six out of ten (59 percent) Americans who are currently planning a trip with their car, truck or SUV this summer will not change their travel plans despite additional increases in the price of gas. Among the 41 percent of respondents who stated their plans would change if gas prices continue to rise, the greatest percentage would simply drive a shorter distance to their vacation destination.
According to AAA’s Leisure Travel Index, air fares over the Memorial Day holiday weekend are expected to rise eight percent over last year as air passengers will pay an average $179. Car rental rates will climb significantly higher with consumers paying an average of $45 per day compared to $31 a year ago, an increase of 45 percent. Hotel rates for AAA 3 Diamond hotels are expected to be seven percent less than last year with travelers spending an average of $162 per night. However, travelers planning to stay at AAA 2 Diamond hotels will pay an average of $112 per night, nine percent more than a year ago.
The greatest number of automobile travelers this Memorial Day holiday weekend will originate in the West with 7.6 million travelers, followed by the Southeast with 6.8 million; Midwest, 6.7 million; Northeast, 5.8 million; and Great Lakes, 4.8 million.
The West is expected to produce the largest number of air travelers with 1.37 million, followed by the Midwest with 1.18 million; Southeast, 870,000; Northeast, 545,000; and Great Lakes, 384,000.
Research for Memorial Day weekend holiday travel projections are derived from Travel Industry Association (TIA)’s Holiday Travel Forecast Model. The model was developed based on consumer travel intentions and TIA’s quarterly travel forecast data. The travel intentions data are collected through an online survey of over 2,000 U.S. adults nationwide, supplemented by an additional 6,500 Americans surveyed from the top 10 states of travel origin in the United States. Historical travel volume and other economic data such as GDP, disposable income, employment and travel costs such as fuel price are also incorporated into the model. Analysis of the data and the forecasts are produced by the Travel Industry Association, which conducts special research for AAA.
Those traveling by car this Memorial Day can estimate the fuel cost of their trip by using AAA’s www.fuelcostcalculator.com.
Also, by utilizing AAA’s Fuel Price Finder (http://aaa.opisnet.com/index.aspx), travelers can access the locations and prices for more than 100,000 gas stations across the country in order to find cheapest fuel along their route.